Consumption versus demand - An investment conundrum that can be solved by technology? We discussed this in our En Voyage Magazine feature.
Guernsey’s commitment to meeting Net Zero by 2050 means we’ll begin to see a very different energy picture to previous decades.
Electricity will be the primary pathway for energy decarbonisation as we transition away from fossil-fuels (such as oil and gas) and by 2050, it is predicted that most heating systems and road vehicles (such as cars, vans, buses and light goods vehicles) will be electric.
This was the clear message which the States of Guernsey made when they passed the Electricity Strategy last year.
Since then, Guernsey Electricity (‘GEL’) has been updating our corporate strategy and the detailed planning within this with a new ‘2035 Strategic Vision’ which takes on board the predicted increase in electricity.
Electricity demand varies – throughout every day and with the seasons. There are ‘peak demand’ times when people are home and using electricity, generally around breakfast, lunch and dinner. Then there are other times when demand is much lower, usually overnight and in select daytime periods, known as ‘off-peak'.
Find out why Off-Peak is so important
Image: Consumption curve showing 'peak' vs 'off-peak' times.
Modelling by independent experts Siemens estimated that ‘peak demand’ for electricity in Guernsey could reach around 157MegaWatts (MW) by 2050, almost a 70% increase on our highest peak reached so far at 94MW in January 2024.
Whilst 2050 may seem a long way off, without an infrastructure investment plan, Guernsey's journey to net zero could be at risk. We may be unable to provide the electricity needed to power the Island at ‘peak times’, or risk increasing the carbon intensity of our electricity by using more fossil-fuels for generation at the Vale power station.
At GEL, we’re undertaking detailed planning to understand how we might significantly reduce Guernsey’s predicted peak demand – potentially down to just 125MW from the predicted 157MW. This is likely to be through a combination of strategic investment in new and emerging technologies and by working with our customers to influence and incentivise the way they consume electricity.
CONSUMPTION VERSUS DEMAND – AN INVESTMENT CONUNDRUM SOLVED BY TECHNOLOGY?
As an island we could risk increasing network (or ‘grid’) demand to unsuitable levels. This could happen if too many households install multiple electrical technologies, such as electric heating or an Electric Vehicle (EV) charger, in an unmanaged manner. To manage these increases, we would have to invest significantly more in the grid to maintain a reliable supply to customers and this would increase our costs.
But what we, and the wider electricity industry, are doing is aiming to provide customers with digital tools and solutions to manage their consumption when the Island is demanding more electricity.
The key is understanding the relationship between consumption and demand. The more Islanders consume energy at one time, the more electricity we must be able to supply to meet that total demand.
Let’s consider your home as an example.
If someone switched on all the electrical appliances simultaneously, the house would trip due to insufficient supply. Your property's capacity isn’t enough to meet the demand created by the combined electricity consumption of all the appliances together. However, if these appliances are operated one after the other, demand is managed, and the capacity needed would be available.
Let’s expand the example into a residential street...
If everyone on that street charged their EV at the same time, the network may fail to meet that demand. However, if customers used a phone app to programme their EV to charge at a specific time overnight, GEL could remotely oversee a range of staggered charging times that allows all street residents to wake up to a fully charged EV.
We could balance electricity demand across the network whilst still allowing customers to consume electricity in the way they’re accustomed to.
The net benefit is that we’re able to make smarter investments in our electricity grid, drive down infrastructure costs, and ultimately, help our island enjoy lower electricity bills.
This is just one example of the many areas (or ‘pillars’) which we are covered in our ‘2035 Strategic Vision’ document. This document, which will be publicly available in September, sets out the various facets of electricity in Guernsey over the next 10 years with a view to preparing us as an island for 2050.
Read our En Voyage feature here. Find us on page 16 & 17!
Read about what what roadworks and smart tech have in common here.
